Archive for November, 2009
GoLearn Forex Analysis 30/11/2009
Moving Averages Are Not So Average by GoLearn Forex
Moving Averages – they are not so average
EUR/USD and USD/CHF
On Thursday of last week we saw the EUR and CHF finally break near term resistance. The EUR cleanly sliced through 1.50 and took out near term resistance around the 1.5055 handle. The CHF finally broke parity with the Dollar after struggling for weeks.
The very next day the Dollar was saved by the news coming out of Dubai. Risk aversion was on as traders unwound short Dollar positions to cover themselves. We discuss Moving Averages a fair amount especially since the 50 SMA has acted as support for such an extended period of time and for a number of currencies such as the EUR and CHF.
The CHF touched .9918 on Wednesday only to give back its gains on Thursday. In the Chart below notice the CHF low on Friday as fear penetrated the market place. As a sense of calm returned the CHF was again bouncing off the 50 SMA, as support held again.
INSERT CHART CHF
The EUR easily breached resistance last Wednesday when the DXY hit new lows for the year. As you can see on the Chart below it closed just below the Fibonacci Retrace level of 76.4%. The very next day the EUR gave back all its gains as the market was reeling from the news of the day.
As details emerged and fear stirred recent wounds in the market the EUR plummeted again. Notice the level the EUR hit before retracing its losses on Friday. The 50 SMA again held support for the EUR.
INSERT CHART EUR
The moral here: Do not discount these as just “average” lines. Even if you question the indicative validity of a moving average the very fact that institutional traders monitor these levels makes them exceptionally important if for no other reason.
Mixed Day for Global Equity Markets After Dubai’s Announcement by GoLearn Forex
It was a mixed day for the Global Equity Markets on Friday following Dubai’s debt default announcement the day before. The markets in Asia continued to sell off while in Europe they apparently felt the exposure was sufficiently contained. In the U.S on Friday after returning from Holiday the day prior, it was the DJIA’s turn to take some risk off the table as it closed lower by 154.48 points to 10,309.92 Opening session futures are pointing positive in premarket hours.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank issued a statement indicating they would offer financing to the local and foreign banks at 50bp over the 3month local benchmark rate. This facility offered by the U.A.E C.B will ensure liquidity and restore some confidence in the market.
On the economic data docket for Monday we have a number items set to print out of the U.K. However, forex traders will be analyzing Black Friday sales numbers as well as the ensuing weekend figures. Currently, net sales figures look to be on par with last year. Additionally for Monday, Euro-zone CPI will hit the wire as will Canadian GDP.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 30, 2009
EUR CPI (YoY) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
CAD GDP (MoM) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
USD Chicago PMI Forecast 53.00 Previous 54.20
AUD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 3.75% Previous 3.50%
Daily Review 30/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar lowered versus most majors on Friday as Dubai debt concerns were reduced due to UAE’s pledge to back foreign and domestic banks in Dubai. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -1.73% and -1.48% after being closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Crude fell by -2.45% closing at 76.05$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in 9 days with -1.08% change closing at 1174.2$ an ounce. Today, Chicago PMI is expected weaker with 53.1 versus 54.2 prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar on Friday’s session as liquidity was lower and stocks declined as a result of Dubai’s financial crisis. The Euro paired its losses as rumors of the UAE backing Dubai’s bank leaked to the market. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4828 and with a high of 1.50. Today, CPI Flash Estimate is expected with 0.5% versus -0.1% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5025
|
Resistance |
1.5055 |
1.5100 |
|
|
Support |
1.4950 |
1.4870 |
1.4825 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound gained versus the Dollar after UAE’s pledge to back Dubai raised risk appetite again lifting the Pound from its monthly lows. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6271 and a high of 1.6510. Today, Net Lending to Individuals is expected with 0.8B versus 0.6B prior, stronger result will lead to less need to expend Britain’s QE program. Mortgage Approvals are expected stronger with 59K versus 56K prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6540
|
Resistance |
1.6590 |
1.6650 |
|
|
Support |
1.6450 |
1.6375 |
1.6325 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen weakened versus the Dollar as uncertainty about the Dubai crisis lowered following UAE’s announcement. Investors shifted back from the safety of the Yen to higher yielding currencies. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.08 and a high of 87.01 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 127.38 and a high of 130.14. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.80
|
Resistance |
87.05 |
87.50 |
88.00 |
|
Support |
86.30 |
85.75 |
85.25 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar remained unchanged versus the Dollar as commodities prices dropped but Dubai’s financial crisis uncertainty lowered. Current Account came out weaker than expected with -13.1B versus -12.9B forecast and -11.9B prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0585 and a high of 1.0748. Today, GDP is expected stronger with 0.4% versus -0.1% prior. RMPI is expected stronger with 3.1% versus -1.1% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0585
|
Resistance |
1.0650 |
1.0700 |
1.0750 |
|
Support |
1.0570 |
1.0540 |
1.0505 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Overview on Metatrader 4
Many times Forex traders need to perform a time synchronization task if expert advisor is working. Time management plays an important role in Forex trading. Every Forex trader should learn time management and money management also. Prohibition for orders opening in definite time spans during 24 hours. Prohibition adjacent to the exertion of the expert advisor about holidays and cancellation of suspended orders after definite time may be needed. In Metatrader 4 time is read from server and relies on the broker configuration. Generally time on the broker server is his restricted time. Metatrader 4 has no means to determine or for the automatic adjustment of time zone.
There is probability at out disposal to know the server time as well as local time of the computer on which this Metatrader 4 is working. If we make use of such dimensions accordingly as hours, minutes and dates then we need to provide correspondence between time on server as well as local time. This task is owned by trader in the Forex trading, while the programmer determining the above restriction can offer only the means for configuration.
With esteem to zero meridian, time will have a shift of 12 to +12 hours that is within 24 hours. But two dates fall within this span. Now let us take an example. Expert advisor must work only throughout the session at NYSE. The opening time of NYSE is 9:30 AM and closing time is 4 PM. When the time will be converted into Greenvich Mean time then we will have GMT-5. We should configure the specialist consultant to work during this time. When we are located at the GMT-0 zone, then we should know our location with respect to zero meridians as well for right synchronization. For instance, out time zone is GMT+1. Therefore time difference males up six hours. As the reference point is time on the Metatrader 4 terminal’s side, then the comparative time shift should be six hours.
Now let us move onto precise figures as well as computations. On trader’s computer, local time is 2.00 PM. We can find the time by shifting the latest time six hours back in New York. We get 8 A.M. It is early for the expert advisors to operation as the stock exchange is not opened still. The exchange will open if the local time will be equivalent to 3.30 PM. When the expert advisor has the TimeShift configuration, then the traders task is only to know the difference between the location time as well as the even time for which the expert advisor must be configured. When the local time leads the needed event then the shift will have the sign “+”. And when the local time follows the event the shift will have the sign “_”.
Advantages of using auto Forex trading software
Due to the current world economy, many people are searching for ways to earn money. You ask yourself that how can I earn massive amount of money in a day? The answer to this question is very simple. You should start your own Forex trading business. In order to start it, you require a computer with internet connection. Another thing you need to make is a small investment to start your trading business. With simple clicks you can earn a lot in Forex trading business. Auto Forex trading software has made your trading job very easy to get profits.
We all wish to particulate in an industry. Their margins are very high; however it seems that we find it tough to depart with our small cash. Until of course, we are confident that we will obtain a best return on our investment. The good news is that automatic Forex trading software is available for traders, who want to get big profits in their trading business. With the help of this software program, you can easily enter in this trading market. It does not mean that you achieve success in this business always. It means that this trading system will do everything to assist you spot that possible win. The aim in Forex trading is to maximize your trading profits and minimize the loss. The aim seems very simple using this software program.
This auto trading software has the capability of analyzing the big trading market data that is based on past and latest trading market forces as well as trade deals. From these, this program then comes up with a forecastings such as what to trade, what volume to be traded, which currencies must be watched and involved and how long you must participate in the trade.
During the real deal, all you need to do is only decide when you wish to trade on its prediction. You do not also have to be present physically during the actual trade. It is worth mentioning that some traders and brokers are there, who like to carry out their Forex trading business manually. You need to have wide-ranging understanding of the Forex trading market and is updated on the banking and finance world. You require analyzing and deciding very quickly otherwise you will not get an opportunity and closed before you entered the arena. It is limiting factor when you have no prior experience in Forex trading market. I think you got a best idea so would you prefer to trade manually or want to make use of automated trading software. You need to decide quickly. As you correct thinking and decision gives you good value for money. Using automated trading software has many advantages only you need to purchase it and use it in your Forex trading business.
Daily Review 27/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar climbed against all majors after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt by 6 month caused Europe Stocks to drop heavily and spurred investors to seek the safety of assets perceived as lower risk. Stocks market in U.S were close due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude oil fell by 3% closing at 76.2$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) closed almost unchanged at 1191.85 $ an ounce but dropped during Asia session falling back to 1170$ levels. No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro fell against the Dollar following the collapse of stock markets in Europe as a result of Dubai’s debt rescheduling. EUR/USD pair traded with a low of 1.4959 and with a high of 1.5141. Loans to Euro zone households and firms fell in October for the second month in a row, coming at 0.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. No important data expected today.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4945
|
Resistance |
1.5020 |
1.5100 |
1.5144 |
|
Support |
1.4913 |
1.4830 |
1.4800 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound fell versus the Dollar as stocks declined and a proposal by Dubai to delay debt payments prompted investors to seek what they perceive to be safer securities. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6466 and with a high of 1.6725. CBI Realized Sales came out at 13 vs. 12 forecast.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6406
|
Resistance |
1.6530 |
1.6648 |
1.6720 |
|
Support |
1.6376 |
|
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen rallied to a 14-year high against the Dollar, climbing past the 85.00 level, on speculation Japanese monetary authorities will tolerate further appreciation of the currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.81 and with a high of 87.48. Tokyo Core CPI came out better than expected at -1.9% vs. -2% forecast.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.37
|
Resistance |
87.00 |
87.70 |
88.62 |
|
Support |
85.80 |
85.00 |
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most in almost four weeks as Dubai’s plan to reschedule its debt spurred a sell-off in crude oil, gold and equities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0450 and with a high of 1.0620.Today, Current Account is expected at -12.9B vs. -11.2B prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0626
|
Resistance |
1.0641 |
1.0719 |
|
|
Support |
1.0587 |
1.0530 |
1.0450 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Introduction about Metatrader 4
The Forex trading market is one of the biggest trading markets in the world. Forex is a big market where big financial and corporation institution trade. It is definite trading market with the odds standing at 1:1. You either loose or win it. However, trading schemes make the trading market a little complex. The changes of getting victory in this kind of trading becomes smaller as many people are trading in it have developed trading strategies, which makes them to get victory.
You require working hard to be completive in Forex trading market. Forex trading business is not for the faint lazy people. In Forex trading, you need to take efforts. Many people may you believe that Forex trading is as easy as counting from one to ten. However that is not the truth. If you do not have much knowledge about forex trading then you need people to work with you. So that you will obtain best guidance about how to do Forex trading. You also need people to assist you in watching for trends as well as signals. Now that will be tough when you do it on your own. But it becomes easy if you make use of Forex trading software called Metatrader4.
This great trading software is especially made for those people, who wish to expand their working hours while they take a rest. It is an automation software application, which assists people to acquire data and do essential analysis. This will become basis for best defined execution of trades in the correct time. Metatrader 4 can be used with other software, which allows trading automation. The system offers charts, which one can make use of to do analysis and take decision. It will provide you indications when to make a purchase or a sell based on the latest situation as well as expected changes.
You are provided the option to develop your own trading strategy or to follow the system. If you wish to make the software more user-friendly then you require incorporating other programs, which translate all the signals that produced by this software to a workable solution and trading automation.
Numerous people have attempted and proven Metatrader 4 to be very efficient. It needs some expertise, which means that it is not projected for those, who know nothing about Forex trading system. This trading software is already used by a number of individuals as well as companies, therefore you will be ensured that your trading is secure if you follow the rules. One opportunity is waiting for you in the Forex trading world. The odds are payable and earning perimeter is huge. If you have the correct trading tool, which guides you and work with you then you are able to start earning a massive amount of money. You should make use of a system, which is already proven as well as tested to generate high possibility results.
Forex Money Management – best trading platform to get great profits in Forex trading
Many traders do not have good money management and that is a fact. They also do not have trading strategy to maximize trading profits. Best trading strategy is a platform through which traders can get big profits. However, traders do not spend much time on searching best strategy. In order to practice successful money management, traders must take money frequent small stops and attempt to obtain huge profits from some large winning trades following the big trends.
Many traders do not even do this. They insist on trading to get small gains in short period of time and place the stops in haphazard unpredictability. All day traders do this and as a result they lose money. The fact is that you will usually have more losses than winners when following the trend; however your gains will be great as compared to your losses. Numerous Forex traders hate being wrong and always with to allows a loss turn around. Hey also do not have stop in the first place however, if trading on leverage, this leads to adversity. Nothing wrong is there with losing. You are going to lose in Forex trading anyway, therefore accept it and try to keep your losses small.
In this article, we provide you some tips to help you in practicing proper money management. First you need to place your stop when you implement your trading signal. Therefore, you are not enticed to allow a loss run. Mental stops do not work for several Forex traders so do not try using them. According to many people, you must risk only 2%. It is simply practical on a small account so risk between 5 to 10%. You should be more selective with your all trades.
All Forex traders are similar in terms of potential. There is no definite fire trade so do not be lured to bet large and a certain fire trade. You need to risk more when you are winning. You goal is preservation of equity all times and it is easy to lose open equity than core equity. Do not trail stops to close and get stopped out by haphazard unpredictability. When it looks like a large trend then holds your stop back and take open equity dips. You have to run the large trends to cover your predictable losses.
If you want to get victory in trading business, you need to stay in the game and which means preserving your equity. When you do this, the trading market gives you big trends that you can run and make huge profits. You need to cut your losses and run your gains. This is a phrase that traders should follow. It is the only way through which they can earn a lot in Forex trading. With the help of these money management tips, you will definitely get success in Forex trading business.
GoLearn Forex Analysis 26/11/2009
Greenback Makes Headlines by GoLearn Forex
The U.S Dollar made headlines yesterday unfortunately for the Greenback it was not positive. The DXY, an index weighted basket of currencies against that Dollar, hit a low for the year touching just below 74.20 before a mild retreat. EUR and CHF both took out near term resistance with the EUR touching an intra-day high of 1.5145 and the CHF dropped below Dollar parity to .9920.
Global Equity Markets were mostly up as the DJIA closed its session ahead 30.69 points to 10,464.40 before the U.S Holiday. Gold struck 1,192 and Oil briefly crosses $78 a barrel before leveling off, as Crude Oil inventories in the U.S were reported to be on the rise.
There are a number of economic data releases due out in Japan and the Euro-zone. The ones to watch will be the CPI from the Euro-zone and the Jobless Rate in Japan. Today is a U.S Holiday, so expect lighter than normal volumes across all markets.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 26, 2009
GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey Forecast 11.00 Previous 8.00
EUR German CPI (MoM)
Forecast 0.00% Previous 0.10%
JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) Forecast -2.00% Previous -2.20%
NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) Previous 2.30%
GoLearn Forex Year End Review
Year End:
Thanksgiving in the U.S marks the beginning of the Holiday Season. The day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday marks the commencement of the Holiday shopping season. Many analysts view this particular season as one of the most important shopping seasons in recent history. The idea is simple. If the consumer stays home and sales are down significantly it may be the final nail in the coffin for many retailers who are still struggling from sluggish sales and hard to find credit.
The following are some important economic data releases to watch heading into the final month of 2009. Economic data releases related to the Consumer, Housing, and the Federal Reserve will capture forex trader’s attention the most. Let’s take a brief moment and highlight the key releases under those 3 sectors.
Consumer – “Retail Sales” will enable traders to gauge consumer spending and the impact on the retail market and its trickle-down effect. The “Unemployment Rate” will be a good indicator of whether the consumer will derail, assist, or possibly be neutral in a pending recovery.
Housing – “Home Sales” both new and existing will continue to be very important as this is the sector that nearly caused the financial collapse. As many as 1 in 4 home owners are underwater so it is vital that home sales and home prices stabilize.
Federal Reserve – comments, minutes, and meetings dictate financial policy. Any speculation of a possible rate increase will strengthen the Greenback. The reason behind why the FED may want or need to raise rates will be secondary to the actual intimation of a hike.
An additional variable to consider heading into year-end will be liquidity. There are many ingredients that feed into this equation. Many funds are up huge this year and want to lock in profits for their year-end closing of the books. This is very important given last year’s massive losses. Therefore you can expect typical end of year slack in volume. Another factor that affects liquidity will be the actual hoarding of cash by corporations and banks in order to shore up balances sheets before they report their financials. To this effect, we have already seen the 3 month T-Bill turn a negative yield as these institutions sock cash away.
Barring some catastrophic event most analysts believe that the Dollar will continue to depreciate. Here are some suggestions for trading the market. Firstly, let’s look at today (Nov. 25th) we had positive prints for Jobless Claims and New Home Sales. Positive means that things are less negative. The economy is losing fewer jobs but still not adding any new ones either. The Dollar tanked on the news (see chart below) as its G-10 rivals advanced smartly.
INSERT CHART
Until the news turns truly positive (and not just less negative) it allows traders to take risks. Traders view the economy as stabilizing but not to the extent that the FED can raise rates. When data releases are negative the impact is measured in “derailments”. Derailments are defined as the potential to slow or even reverse a global recovery. In summary, go short on the Dollar on news which is positive (meaning less negative than the prior month). Go long the Dollar against the currencies that appreciated the most against it when truly negative data prints.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 26/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar fell across the board after the Federal Reserve said the global recession is reaching its end and signaled it will tolerate a weaker Dollar, which encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Unemployment Claims came out batter than the forecast at 466K vs.500K forecast and New Homes Sales climbed more than forecast at 430K vs. 408K forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.32% and 0.29% respectively, crude oil jumped by 2.6% closed nearly to 78$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) rose by 1.8% reached to a new record high during the day (above 1190$ ) but finally closing at 1187$ an ounce . No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro surged to a 15 month high against the Dollar after the Federal Reserve refrained from voicing concern over the U.S. currency’s decline. GFK German Consumer Climate came out at 3.7 vs. 4.2 forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4955 and with a high of 1.5144. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.0% vs. 0.1% prior and M3 Money Supply is expected at 0.7% vs. 1.8% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5102
|
Resistance |
1.5144 |
|
|
|
Support |
1.5095 |
1.5040 |
1.5000 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound rose versus the Dollar after the GDP report data was released and showed the UK economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter, coming out at -0.3%, bringing the longest recession on record closer to an end. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and with a high of 1.6744. Today, CBI Realized Sales is expected at 12 vs. 8 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6654
|
Resistance |
1.6724 |
1.6820 |
|
|
Support |
1.6643 |
1.6503 |
1.6472 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen continued to strengthen versus the Dollar after breaking below 88 for the first time in 10 months as the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will tolerate a weaker Dollar encouraged investors to buy assets outside America. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.21 and with a high of 88.63, trade balance came out better than expected at 0.42T vs. 0.31T forecast. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.51
|
Resistance |
87.48 |
88.37 |
89.13 |
|
Support |
86.29 |
|
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar strengthened to the highest level in a week versus the Dollar after Russia’s central bank said it will add the currency to its reserves and as copper rose and gold headed for the longest string of gains in almost three decades. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0449 and with a high of 1.0583. No economic data expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500
|
Resistance |
1.0526 |
1.0642 |
1.0726 |
|
Support |
1.0450 |
|
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Utilizing the best Forex Trade Platform for the profits
Forex Platform uses some of the software through which online brokers and the investors can carry out every day Forex trading from anywhere around the world. New age Forex trading platforms offer several Forex Currency Trading options that are advanced, sole features that can in fact change the way one used to distinguish online trade. The best Forex platform presents the mix together of the useful usage joint with ease of use. The best Forex Currency Trading platform will be intended to assist the shareholder in executing the trade most efficiently by employing strategies to make the most of the return. Most of the Forex trading platforms are motorized with the exclusive psychoanalysis and strategy-testing features to test all buy and sell rules. With a click of your mouse you can right of entry plan presentation of the information with fake results like profit versus loss, yearly rate of return, etc. Based on them you can adjust your trade strategy without incurring losses. The best Forex trading display place always comes with fully automatic real-time online streaming information from the marketplace to take the benefit of the liquidity of the marketplace. The most excellent Forex trade platform connects your check the markets. This also ensures that you get the completing prices on every order nature existing without any slippage. The most excellent Forex trading platform should give the robust backbone to grip the entire business of heavy information and information traffic.
The best Forex trade platform must present more than one type of explanation like the standard, institutional or mini. The stage should come with dissimilar in service packages like Flash, Java, or WAP. All the software gives the firewall defense to uphold the security and honesty of your trade. You can do your trading from home, office, laptop on the go or even from an Internet café with equivalent ease. The best Forex trading stage will make easy you to use the scheme without downloading any program, which presents ideal mobility to the traders or investors. The best Forex trading platform should offer all the tight increase on all main money pairs with all sorts of cutting-edge trading technology. The quick implementation with limitless deal amount. There is also slippages and no requites here. A steady margin supplies in all unstable marketplace state and there is a multiplicity of real-time charts and additional industrial analysis all that is based predictions with utmost visual representation. Then there is a flexibility of placing compound orders counting unforeseen event orders as well as several real time margins and even many position monitoring. There is also a presence of much technical analysis for the entire demonstration as well as for all the live accounts and there is also an authentic market news and financial calendar