Archive for November 2nd, 2009
GoLearnForex Technical Analysis 2-11-2009
GBP/USD:
The Pound has been range bound for some time. It is trading between 1.6650 and 1.61. Price action above or below those levels has lead to a number of false breakouts. Interestingly enough, if you draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the Pound’s high at 2.1160 in 2007 to the Pound’s low just below 1.35 in 2009, you will notice that the 38.2% Fibonacci level is at 1.6422.
INSERT GRAPH
That level is significant because over the last 6 months we have had more candles extend through this level than above or below it. On the Chart is the 50 day MA in yellow which also had been hovering along the same Fibo line. In October the 50 day MA dipped below the 38.2% Fibo level but price has since recovered in the last week.
Typically price will either trend and break through various Fibonacci levels, or it will range in between 2 Fibonacci levels as it searches for direction. When price hugs a level for a considerable time you expect to see a breakout. We expect to see a shift in this pattern that will cause price to break free of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.6422.
EUR/USD:
The EUR has been holding support at a level equal to its 50 day MA since April 30th. The EUR is now in range to test that level of support. Here is what we are looking for as confirmation of a real move lower.
INSERT CHART
We want to see at least a whole candle including its wicks fall between the 50 day and 100 day MA. Additionally, the last lower low we had was at the 1.45 handle. If we break that level we would increase the short position.
If the short entry presents itself we would take PNL at the 1.4225 handle and reevaluate the markets and our positions at that time.
GoLearnForex Fundamental Analysis 2-11-2009
Global Equity Markets were net losers last week. In the U.S the DJIA slid nearly 250 points on Friday. Financials were hit the hardest, lead by concerns over CITI’s balance sheet and CIT’s inability to repay debt and probable bankruptcy filing. An additional behind the scenes market mover was Friday’s fiscal year end for many Mutual Funds.
The Dollar finished the week gaining on 8 of the G-10 currencies with Kiwi the big loser, down 3.96% for the week. Gold finished the week up less than 1% while silver dropped by 4.56%. Oil closed the week at $77 a barrel, roughly $4 off its high.
There are a number of important economic data releases due out this week. 4 major Central Bank will meet this week; the FED, RBA, BOE, and ECB. Only the RBA is expected to raise rates. All eyes will be watching the accompanying statements of Central Bankers. For Monday, ISM Manufacturing numbers in the U.S are set to print. The market is anticipating a slightly higher read for October at 53 versus 52.6 in September.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 2, 2009
CHF SVME PMI Forecast 55.10 Previous 54.30
EUR Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.70 Previous 50.70
USD ISM Manufacturing Index Forecast 53.00 Previous 52.60
AUD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 3.50% Previous 3.25%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
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Daily Review 02/11/2009
Daily Review 02/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar gained versus most majors as weak Personal Spending and stock declines continued to lower risk appetite. NASDAQ and Dow Jones fell by -2.50% and -2.51% accordingly. Crude dropped by -3.61% closing at 76.99$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) declined by -0.64% closing at 1039.70$ an ounce on stronger Dollar. Today, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected with 53.1 versus 52.6 prior and Pending Home Sales are expected lower with 0.3% change versus 6.4% prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro declined versus the Dollar after more declines in stocks led to risk aversion. German Retail Sales came out worse than expected with -0.5% drop versus 0.7% expected showing the recession isn\’t necessarily over. European Unemployment Rate came out 9.7% as expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4703 and with a high of 1.4858. Today, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged with 50.7.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4765
|
Resistance |
1.4785 |
1.482 |
1.486 |
|
Support |
1.4645 |
1.4615 |
1.4565 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound weakened versus the Dollar as well as the other majors after Nationwide HPI gained by 0.4% weaker than 0.7% expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6407 and a high of 1.6579. Today, Manufacturing PMI is expected stronger with 50.1 versus 49.5 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6470
|
Resistance |
1.65 |
1.6565 |
1.6605 |
|
Support |
1.635 |
1.631 |
1.625 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Dollar and other majors as risk aversion grew following weak economic data. Japanese Unemployment Rate came out 5.3% better than 5.6% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.91 and a high of 91.58 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.30 and a high of 135.91. Today is Culture Day in Japan and banks will be closed.
USD/JPY-Last: 90.10
|
Resistance |
90.3 |
90.6 |
90.85 |
|
Support |
89.65 |
89.4 |
88.9 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar fell versus the Dollar after GDP showed contraction of 0.1% versus 0.1% gain expected and commodities prices dropped following stronger Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0652 and with a high of 1.0846. No major economic data expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0780
|
Resistance |
1.093 |
1.0995 |
1.1075 |
|
Support |
1.075 |
1.065 |
1.0585 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
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