Archive for November 5th, 2009
GoLearnForex Analysis 05/11/2009
Forex Trading Analysis by GoLearnForex
EUR/USD:
The EUR is still seeking some direction having just bounced off of support of the 50 day MA. In the daily EUR Chart below we once again are looking to our Fibonacci levels in search of some key handles.
INSERT CHART
I believe if we surpass 1.50 as a non-event after having tested that level and broken through it, then entering a small Long EUR position may be in order. If we break the Fibo 76.4% level currently at 1.5162 then I would look to increase the Long EUR position. On the other hand should a EUR candle be contained entirely below the 50 day Moving Average then a Short EUR position could easily be entered into with stops just above the 50 day MA.
USD/CAD
We may continue to see the CAD strengthen against the greenback. Up until a week and half ago the Loonie was on course for dollar parity. If you recall the BOC came out sharply against its own currency essentially causing the CAD to tank.
The daily CAD chart below shows that we have bumped along the 1.0850 handle 7 times since the end of May, and most recently just a couple days ago. If it were not for fear of more BOC market interference this would be a great time to enter a Long CAD position with a stop at CAD support of 1.0850. Additionally, if we see CHF break or hold dollar parity that will bolster CAD strength as it rides the tailwinds since the Canadian economy is substantially less soft than the U.S. If Oil continues to strengthen, that will also add further support to CAD’s continuing firming.
How to Trade Forex When the Global Equity Markets are in the Black
Gold does it again setting a new high to 1,097.72. Oil also broke back over $80 a barrel to an intra-day high of $81.06. Gold advanced following India’s tremendous purchase from the IMF yesterday while Oil strengthened on the back of the Oil Reserve Reports indicating reserves were down in the U.S.
Global Equity Markets were in the black for Wednesday which of course spells trouble for the greenback. The dollar gave up over 1% today to 7 of the G10 currencies. Adding to the dollars troubles was the FOMC announcing that they will continue to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future, thus enabling the U.S Economy time to rebound.
It will be another busy day on the economic data release front for Thursday. In Switzerland, CPI is set to print while in Australia Trade Balance figures are due out. However, the 2 releases that will garner the most attention are the rate decision from both the ECB and BOE. Although, both are expected to keep rates on hold it will be the accompanying statements that potentially provide the market volatility.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 5, 2009
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Actual -203.00K Forecast -190.00K Previous -227.00K
USD Interest Rate Decision Actual 0.25% Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
NZD Unemployment Rate Actual 6.50% Forecast 6.40% Previous 6.00%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
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Daily Review 05/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar fell across the board on the FED decision to leave interest rates at their historic lows of 0.25%. Stocks ended mostly up in the U.S. but far from their daily highs. The ADP National Employment Report came out -203K worse than -190K expected. The Dow Jones rose by 0.31%, The Nasdaq closed almost unchanged with -0.09% decrease and the S&P added 0.1%. Gold (XAU) continued to rise and posted new record highs at $1,097. Crude oil rose for the 4th day in a row and is back above $80 a barrel. Today, The Nonfarm Productivity is expected at 5.8% versus 6.6% previously. The Unit Labor Cost is expected -3.7% vs. -5.9% previously. The Initial Jobless Claims is expected 520K vs. 530K previously.
EURO (EUR)
The EUR/USD continued on its uptrend for the week and soared against the Dollar. Producer Price Index came out -0.4% worse than -0.3% expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4701 and with a high of 1.4907. Today, The European Central Bank will release their interest rate decision, expected unchanged at 1%.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4838
|
Resistance |
1.4925 |
1.498 |
1.5045 |
|
Support |
1.48 |
1.476 |
1.47 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound posted sharp gains against the Dollar and extended its 2 day rally after the Fed\’s rate decision. The Services PMI came out 56.9 better than 55.4 expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.64 and a high of 1.6595. Today, The Bank of England will release its\’ decision on the interest rate, the economists expect it unchanged at 0.5%. The Manufacturing Production is expected at 1.1% vs. -1.9% previously. The Industrial Production is expected at 1.1% vs. -2.5% previously.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6515
|
Resistance |
1.6605 |
1.664 |
1.6695 |
|
Support |
1.6495 |
1.6455 |
1.642 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen tumbled across the board. BOJ said on its minutes it is not planning to raise interest rates soon even after ending the emergency programs. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.03 and a high of 91.30. Today, Leading Indicators are expected higher with 86.4% versus 83.2%.
USD/JPY-Last: 90.55
|
Resistance |
91 |
91.3 |
91.55 |
|
Support |
90.4 |
90.25 |
90.05 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar ended higher as commodity prices kept advancing and higher yielding assets demand remained high after U.S interest rate decision was released. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0587 and with a high of 1.0683. Today, Building Permits are expected at 1.2% vs. 7.2% previously. Ivery PMI is expected at 60.9 vs. 61.7 previously.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0645
|
Resistance |
1.0685 |
1.0715 |
1.076 |
|
Support |
1.0595 |
1.0545 |
1.049 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
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