GoLearnForex Analysis 05/11/2009

Forex Trading Analysis by GoLearnForex

EUR/USD:

The EUR is still seeking some direction having just bounced off of support of the 50 day MA. In the daily EUR Chart below we once again are looking to our Fibonacci levels in search of some key handles.

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I believe if we surpass 1.50 as a non-event after having tested that level and broken through it, then entering a small Long EUR position may be in order. If we break the Fibo 76.4% level currently at 1.5162 then I would look to increase the Long EUR position. On the other hand should a EUR candle be contained entirely below the 50 day Moving Average then a Short EUR position could easily be entered into with stops just above the 50 day MA.

USD/CAD

We may continue to see the CAD strengthen against the greenback. Up until a week and half ago the Loonie was on course for dollar parity. If you recall the BOC came out sharply against its own currency essentially causing the CAD to tank.

The daily CAD chart below shows that we have bumped along the 1.0850 handle 7 times since the end of May, and most recently just a couple days ago. If it were not for fear of more BOC market interference this would be a great time to enter a Long CAD position with a stop at CAD support of 1.0850. Additionally, if we see CHF break or hold dollar parity that will bolster CAD strength as it rides the tailwinds since the Canadian economy is substantially less soft than the U.S. If Oil continues to strengthen, that will also add further support to CAD’s continuing firming.

How to Trade Forex When the Global Equity Markets are in the Black

Gold does it again setting a new high to 1,097.72. Oil also broke back over $80 a barrel to an intra-day high of $81.06. Gold advanced following India’s tremendous purchase from the IMF yesterday while Oil strengthened on the back of the Oil Reserve Reports indicating reserves were down in the U.S.

Global Equity Markets were in the black for Wednesday which of course spells trouble for the greenback. The dollar gave up over 1% today to 7 of the G10 currencies. Adding to the dollars troubles was the FOMC announcing that they will continue to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future, thus enabling the U.S Economy time to rebound.

It will be another busy day on the economic data release front for Thursday. In Switzerland, CPI is set to print while in Australia Trade Balance figures are due out. However, the 2 releases that will garner the most attention are the rate decision from both the ECB and BOE. Although, both are expected to keep rates on hold it will be the accompanying statements that potentially provide the market volatility.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 5, 2009

USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Actual -203.00K Forecast -190.00K Previous -227.00K

USD Interest Rate Decision Actual 0.25% Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%

NZD Unemployment Rate Actual 6.50% Forecast 6.40% Previous 6.00%

JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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