Archive for November 12th, 2009
GoLearnForex Analysis 12/11/2009
CAD Gains More Against USD Than Other Major Currencies by GoLearnForex
USD/CAD:
Since November 6th, amongst the G-10 the CAD has gained more than any other currency versus the greenback. The CAD has gained 2.71% through November 11th. We will present 2 reasons for this move. The Canadian Dollar lost the most amongst the G-10 in the weeks prior to November 6th. It began with the BOC cautioning the markets about its remaining tolerance of a strong Canadian Dollar. That was followed by a couple of poorer than expected economic releases.
The Dollar during that period of time strengthened as well when risk aversion was back. Doing a straight current price comparison most of the G-7 has since returned to their respective levels prior to the Dollars run. The only currency that did not retrace most its losses was the CAD. Once the other pairs abutted their support and resistance levels they began to consolidate. The Canadian Dollar still had further room to appreciate versus it prior loss and it has.
INSERT CHART
The second reason that we alluded to earlier can be seen by the formation of a Descending Triangle. Trend is clearly still favoring the Canadian Dollar. The bottom line of the triangle represents short term S&R. On the top line, the slope of the hypotenuse, represent the trend. As price trades with the trend line towards S&R we anticipate a breakout to occur. You can see that we have just broken below short term S&R, thereby advancing the CAD even further.
Quiet USD Rally as Gold Continues to Climb the Charts by GoLearnForex
Global Equity Markets advanced again on Wednesday. In the U.S the DJIA closed up 44.29 points to 10,291.26 in lighter than normal volume due to the Holiday. The Dollar strengthened later in the day after the DXY briefly touched below 75.00 The Sterling came in as the big loser giving up 1.05% to trade at 1.6570, while the CAD advanced again today up nearly .4% to 1.0450.
In spite of the quiet Dollar rally Gold continued its climb to close at 1,118 and a gain of $12. Investors tend to buy Gold when economic times are uncertain. The purchase of large amounts of Gold by India and Sri-Lanka last week, in addition to the G-20 summit in which all members agreed to maintain quantitative easing programs for as long as necessary, have led investors to believe Gold will be in demand for quite some time to come. Oil was flat for a second day in a row closing below 79.50.
This week has been light in the way economic releases. Tomorrow, Australia’s Unemployment figures are set to print. We would expect that if these numbers underperform that the AUD will lose some of it strength given the current stance of the Australian Central Bank. In the U.S. Continuing Claims and Initials Claims are due out and although they are a weekly print, it may confirm the dismal employment situation in the U.S. Traders are looking for any signs that the employment situation is improving and therefore they will be watching these weekly numbers closely.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 12, 2009
EUR Industrial Production (MoM) Forecast 0.60% Previous 0.90%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications Previous 8.20%
USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 512.00K Previous 512.00K
EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 12/11/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
Dollar closed the day on a mixed note after a low liquidity trading session amid U.S. bank holiday. U.S. stocks future print modest gains reaching fresh year highs, suggesting dollar bearish rally is not over. The NASDAQ rose by 0.7% and the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, The Dow Jones appreciated 0.43% closing at 10,291. Gold (XAU) reached a fresh historical high at 1118.60$ an ounce to close the day. Crude Oil also rose closing above 79$ a barrel. Today, The Initial Jobless Claims expected unchanged at 512K. The Federal Budget Balance is expected at -150B vs. -46.6B previously.
EURO (EUR)
The EUR/USD has done little in the last few days, it attempted to break yearly high, yet failed at the 1.5050 level, triggering some modest profit taking among investors. It was a French Bank Holiday in Europe. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4952 and with a high of 1.5047. Today, The ECB Monthly Report will come out and might show that Europe’s economy expanded last quarter, damping demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge. Later ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak. The Industrial Production expected at 0.6% vs. 0.9% previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4994
|
Resistance |
1.5025 |
1.5065 |
1.5125 |
|
Support |
1.4910 |
1.4875 |
1.4815 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound declined by the most in almost three weeks against the dollar after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said a weaker currency should lead to a recovery in the economy. Sterling fell under the 1.6600 level, after U.K. inflation statement, that present the idea that the BOE is likely to keep policy steady for an extended period amid what is likely to be a slow economic recovery. GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6534 and with a high of 1.6797. Today, No economic data expected.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6600
|
Resistance |
1.6625 |
1.6670 |
1.6725 |
|
Support |
1.6500 |
1.6465 |
1.6405 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Japanese currency traded without clear direction against the dollar and closed almost unchanged. The currency needs to break through the 90.35 level in order to stay bullish but so far it can\’t hold above 90 levels. The Yen strengthened against the sterling after the inflation report came out. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.28 and with a high of 90.03. Today, The Industrial Production expected unchanged at 1.4%
USD/JPY-Last: 89.82
|
Resistance |
90.20 |
90.40 |
90.60 |
|
Support |
89.70 |
89.48 |
89.30 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Canada’s Dollar rose to the strongest level against its U.S. counterpart since Oct. 22, after reports in China showed the economy is advancing, spurring stock and commodity gains. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0430 and with a high of 1.0502. Today, The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) expected at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0433
|
Resistance |
1.0500 |
1.0545 |
1.0600 |
|
Support |
1.0435 |
1.0405 |
1.0375 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
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