Archive for December 2nd, 2009
GoLearn Forex Analysis 2/12/2009
EURUSD Survives Dubai Scare – What Next? By GoLearn Forex
EUR/USD:
Now that the EUR has safely breached resistance and survived the Dubai scare let’s take a look at where the EUR may be heading next. In order to project forward we must first look back at where the EUR has been. In the Graph below you can clearly see the period of complete market turmoil, commencing July of 2008. Over the next year notice the ensuing volatility represented by the white circle. The area in the red box shows a steadier trend emerging in June 2009. This is further evidenced by price cleanly riding up the 50 SMA in yellow.
INSERT CHART EUR1
EURUSD Survives Dubai Scare – What Next? By GoLearn Forex
EUR/USD:
Now that the EUR has safely breached resistance and survived the Dubai scare let’s take a look at where the EUR may be heading next. In order to project forward we must first look back at where the EUR has been. In the Graph below you can clearly see the period of complete market turmoil, commencing July of 2008. Over the next year notice the ensuing volatility represented by the white circle. The area in the red box shows a steadier trend emerging in June 2009. This is further evidenced by price cleanly riding up the 50 SMA in yellow.
INSERT CHART EUR1
I drew a Fibonacci Projection from the low indicated by Box A to the high indicated by Box B on the Graph below. These points are significant because they are inflection points that began the EUR rally. Additionally, they are located in the area of volatility circled in white above. Fibonacci makes sense and order from disorder and chaos. Therefore using these points for the basis of the projection is taking chaos or what we refer to as volatility and making order and sense from it which is the period of time represented by the red box above. View the results in the Graph below.
INSERT CHART EUR2
The Fibonacci’s Projections land on almost precisely the last 3 resistance levels and highlights past price action resistance points as well. The FIBO 138.2% level at 1.5048 was struck in October when the EUR finally broke the psychological 1.50 barrier. It was tested again in November before finally being taken out a few days ago.
So where is the EUR headed next? Based on the Fibonacci Projections we expect to meet resistance at 150%, which coincides with previous support levels as indicated by the 2 blue circles back in May and June of 2008. If the Fibonacci 150% level is taken out then the next point of resistance is the 161.8% or approximately 1.55. You can see the congestion at that level starting in May 2008 and lasting through June 2008.
Since the 50 SMA has been holding such strong support for this EUR move our new Long entries would trigger near the 50 SMA (buying on the dips). If we breach the 150% Fibonacci level then we would increase our Long and look to take profit near 1.55. However, in order to enter a short we would need to see an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA. This is an occurrence that has not taken place in months.
INSERT CHART EUR3
Good News Give the USD a Slide – by GoLearn Forex
The Dollar tumbled Tuesday falling just south of 74.30 on the DXY. The Kiwi was the big winner advancing 1.38% followed by the Pound at 1.03%. Meanwhile the JPY was the only major to lose ground to the Greenback as an emergency meeting of finance minister in Japan was convened to discuss the JPY’s continued strength.
The Dollar slide was triggered by a wave of positive economic data releases. On the home front, contracts to purchased existing homes jumped 3.7% unexpectedly. ISM figures remained above the critical 50 level. Couple the data releases with positive Black Friday and weekend sales as well as Dubai shoring up its debt facility payments and we had the ingredients for a massive Global Equity Market rally. It will be a quiet Wednesday for economic releases.
Oil finished the day up just over a dollar a barrel to 78.37. Gold closed at 1,196.60 up $20 from the day before. In intra-day trading Gold broke 1,200 before retracing, although futures are pointing up this morning so 1,200 should be no barrier today.
Upcoming Forex Events for December 2, 2009
EUR PPI (MoM) Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.40%
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Forecast -148.00K Previous -203.00K
USD Beige Book
AUD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.50% Previous -0.20%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 02/12/2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar weakened versus most majors as better than expected housing data was released and the Dubai effect fades away. Pending Home Sales came out surprisingly positive with 3.7% versus -0.4% decline expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI was released with 53.6 weaker than 54.8 forecasted. NASDAQ gained by 1.46% and Dow Jones reached new yearly highs with 1.23% change. Crude gained by 0.75% closing at 77.86$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) gained by 1.25% closing at new record highs with 1195.9$ an ounce after reaching the 1200$ mark. Today, ADP Non Farm Employment Change is expected with -149K versus -203K prior. FOMC Member Lacker will speak and the Fed\’s Beige Book will be released giving more information on future monetary policy decisions. Crude Oil Inventories are expected with -0.4M decrease versus 1M prior, and could result volatile prices.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro continued to climb versus the Dollar as Dubai\’s effect fades off and equity markets continue rising. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate came out 9.8% as expected and German Unemployment Change came out better with -7K decrease versus 5K increase expected. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4971 and with a high of 1.5117. Today, PPI is expected with 0.1% versus -0.4% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5090
|
Resistance |
1.5145 |
1.5170 |
1.5210 |
|
Support |
1.5050 |
1.5000 |
1.4975 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound rose versus the Dollar after Housing Prices showed an increase of 0.4% higher than 0.3% expected and Dubai\’s crisis concerns eased. Manufacturing PMI came out weaker with 53.6 versus 54.1 expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6390 and a high of 1.6646. Today, Construction PMI is expected with 46.9 versus 46.2 prior. MPC Member Dale will speak today at Essex.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6620
|
Resistance |
1.6650 |
1.6700 |
1.6750 |
|
Support |
1.6550 |
1.6510 |
1.6475 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen weakened versus the Dollar and the Euro after BOJ announced it will provide 115 billion Dollars for 3 month loans at 0.1%. Monetary Base came out weaker with 3.8% versus 4.7% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 86.16 and a high of 87.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 129.32 and a high of 131.27. Today, Capital Spending is expected with -15.8% versus -21.7% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.70
|
Resistance |
87.10 |
87.50 |
88.00 |
|
Support |
86.30 |
85.75 |
85.25 |
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar rose versus the Dollar as investors shift back to higher yielding assets. Australian government raised its overnight interest rate by 0.25% supporting other commodity linked currencies such as the Canadian Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0405 and a high of 1.0576. No economic data expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0465
|
Resistance |
1.0475 |
1.0505 |
1.0540 |
|
Support |
1.0400 |
1.0375 |
1.0315 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Use of software’s in FOREX trading
FOREX Trading is a very unique kind of trading market that is becoming popular on a very fast pace. It is the market of trading that is rapidly becoming the most recent and most modern forte in the world of trading. The market of trading that is very much regular in its action has actually become so turbulent that all the best available traders of this particular trading business are walking all around scraping their heads on the day to day basis. If you are the kind of trader who was never been attracted toward the big FOREX market and who never even gave a thought to FOREX trading, then believe me it’s your time now. You can trade as much as you want to. But it’s not that easy as it appears to be. Very often, people who are really very confident also end up losing all their money. On the other hand, if you are able to find the accurate software for the process of FOREX trading then there is no one who can stop you from being really very successful.
If you are the kind of trader who is very much familiar with the regular market of trading, then you must be quite aware of the fact that how rapidly the market of trading changes its position. This is the thing that is even truer in the case of FOREX trading, but the actual outline of trading undergoes a sudden change which is inclined to be much more identifiable as you are making a deal in the market of currency.
Now as you all must be having a vague idea that the FOREX market that deals with currency trading has made a reputation of being tremendously unstable and unpredictable, it is the market that follows the prototype of trading over quite a large period of time that you can easily be able to spot.
The actual challenge that each and every trader has to face is being able to identify the trend of trading in the right time in order to be able to obtain large amount of advantage from it.
Unless and until you are not enough talented to be able to stand at your computer for nearly around 24 hours in a day, it is very much improbable for you that you are going to be able to be really very successful in the respect of currency trading. But there is a way by which you can attain that level of success by having or possessing automatically operated software of trading that can keep track records of all the trades for you.
It is a quite an efficient way of keeping all the trading related information with yourself and can also help its users in a great way.
Advertisement
Tags
Recent Posts
- Ringgit, Rupee Lead Increases in Asian Currencies on Enlargement, Rising Rates
- Tropical Tempest Don Figures Off Mexico’s Yucatan on Track for Texas Coastline
- Boehner Wrestles Internal Rivalry on Liability Plan
- Dollar Drops Versus Swiss Franc on Liability Upper Limit Impasse; Yen Pares Gains
- Asian Currencies Fortify to 14-Year Soaring on New Greek Liberate Package